Meridian Commodities has published its annual base metals outlook, forecasting a refined copper deficit of 310,000 tonnes in 2027 and a narrower shortfall in 2028. The assessment is the sister company’s twelfth annual outlook and is based on mine-by-mine supply modelling rather than consensus estimates.
The report argues that demand from grid reinforcement and data centre construction is now the marginal driver of European consumption, displacing the construction sector that dominated the previous cycle. On the supply side, permitting timelines and declining ore grades mean that projects already in the pipeline are unlikely to close the gap before 2029.
Meridian’s central case assumes an average price of between $9,800 and $11,400 per tonne over the next two years, with the widest uncertainty attached to Chinese property completions and to substitution in high-voltage cable, where aluminium continues to take share at the margin.
Meridian is a separate company owned by the founding partners of North Holdings Group; its research is sold by subscription and is not investment advice. The full outlook is available to subscribers, and a summary is published on the Meridian website.