Ask an industrial developer in the Netherlands or western Germany where they would like to build and the answer is increasingly shaped by a single question: when can you get a connection? In several grid regions, firm connection dates for large new loads have slipped beyond 2032, and the queue rather than the property market now sets the timetable.
The effect is uneven. Brownfield sites with existing capacity have become the most valuable industrial land in Europe, sometimes trading at a premium that has nothing to do with the buildings on them. New greenfield campuses are being designed around on-site generation, battery storage and power purchase agreements signed before the first planning application.
For North Industrial, the shift shows up in the order book. Substation upgrades, transformer replacement and retrofit work on existing plant now account for around 30 per cent of contracted revenue, up from 12 per cent in 2022. Customers are also asking for maintenance contracts that assume far more on-site electrical equipment than they would have ten years ago.
There is a policy risk in all of this. Several regulators have proposed queue reform, including milestone requirements that would remove speculative projects from the line. If those reforms work, some of the scarcity premium in existing connections will fade. For now, the queue remains the binding constraint.